Idlib and east of the Euphrates .. and the options of the Syrian state
Amjad Ismail Al-Agha
Among the political perceptions of the particles of the war on Syria, it has become clear that Turkey does not deviate from the strategic context governing American policy in Syria, and this indicates in its details that Washington is trying to engineer the Syrian field again, as well as a number of goals that begin to contain Iranian influence in Syria, and do not end By preventing Russia from being alone in any political equation that establishes Washington’s exclusion from the contents of the solution in Syria.
Within these variables, developments have emerged recently that may change many equations in the context of the war on Syria, as the Russian S-400 missiles that have come into the hands of Turkey have added a new dimension in the Russian-Turkish relationship, a dimension that may not be built in the arrangements The final issue of the Syrian file, but Russia is trying to invest this deal politically, and partially employ its results in the files of Idlib and East Euphrates, as Turkey was and still adopts the principle of dealing with political contradictions, and the Atlas of American orientation is still American orientation, as Turkish policy towards Syria differs in content and goals from Russia and Iran, They are partly compatible with the American tendencies, and therefore Turkey has become on the opposite sides, and within that the Russian-Turkish relationship has become a matter of apprehension for both parties, which means that any agreement or understanding may not be documented on the ground, unless the path and direction governing the relationship between the two countries are explicitly defined. In particular, the particles related to Idlib and the understandings of East Euphrates.
The major problem between Russia and Turkey is centered around the formulations of the Astana and Sochi agreements, and therefore the two countries are trying to build their relationship on the principle of separating files as possible, in order to prevent reaching the stage of lack of options, while continuing to search for indicators of success in the contents of the relationship between them, so it is proven that Russia will not abandon Syria has many strategic reasons, and there is primarily a circumstantial necessity to contain Turkish aspirations in Idlib and eastern Euphrates, and to dispel any concerns that may pose a threat to the political and military results achieved by Syria, Russia and Iran.
The Idlib battle and its manifestations reflect a state of conflict With the result between regional and international powers, this conflict is a true translation of a set of urgent changes in the roles of actors affecting the Syrian file. The American declaration regarding withdrawal from Syria has been a pressure for all parties, and the political and military influence of the American decision can only be limited within theories of influence that All sides are trying to translate it into reality on the ground, and this is what made Turkey burst into the options of political maneuvering with escalating military dimensions.
Consequently, the accumulation of political and military data in the Syrian file suggests to us that the copies of Astana carry two important dimensions:
The first – the Astana meeting does not have sufficient capacity to enter into options for political or military settlement in Syria, and it cannot establish consensual formulas that establish final solutions.
The second – the Astana meeting does not have sufficient capacity to directly maneuver between the regional and international hubs, leading to results that satisfy all actors in the Syrian issue.
Within these two dimensions, Turkey is maneuvering to study all possible options for obtaining political gains, on the other hand, Washington is trying to impose the reality of its presence and its political pressure, in addition to its desire to be one of the pillars of the political solution in Syria, but within its strategic vision, especially as Washington has declared itself An original party in the Syrian scene, and its desire to change the current data.
On the other hand, from the point of view of the Syrian leadership, the Idlib file has become necessary to close it politically or militarily, in order to prevent Idlib from being held hostage by regional and international options, as well as the file of East Euphrates and the need to address it on all political and military tracks, in order to return it to Syrian sovereignty. This is a long-term Syrian goal that includes the eventual exclusion of Turkey from the scene of the Syrian north, because the strategic view of the Syrian state realizes that Turkey insists on the complexity of the Syrian solution through a set of contradictions in Erdogan’s policy, and it is clear that Turkey does not implement what it declares, and its children may It is necessary to disavow any agreement, as Turkey has practically not been able to implement the provisions of the Sochi Agreement on Demilitarized Zones, and at the same time Turkey cannot move away from the American tendencies in Syria, specifically in the Kurdish part, and by doing so it is trying to attract Washington to a scene from which it is intended. Concluding a deal passed under the table, because the Turkish logic understands that Russia will not change its strategic approach towards Syria, and there will be no consensual political solutions without approval from Damascus, while Washington has a margin in the parameters of deals and compromises, which could include it in an agreement with Turkey, be Kurdish tool sacrifice.
The Idlib file is organically linked to the east of the Euphrates. Obstacles and complications still impose a strategic dimension that must be built upon in Syria, Russia and Iran, in other words, the northern Syrian papers must be arranged within the political and military tracks, especially as the Syrian-Russian-Iranian alliance realizes that Turkey does not disclose the true political intentions And the military is facing the Syrian political solution, just as Turkey still loves Washington and is trying to attract it to the Turkish theater in terms of concerns regarding the Kurdish file, and within this the Syrian state is studying all possible scenarios to get around the American maneuvers Turkish in Syria, therefore, regardless of the maneuvers of the Turkish regime and the possibility of turning it again towards the West, or staying within theories of disrupting the political solution in Syria, it may be that Damascus’s reliance on Russian-Turkish understandings is great in terms of a political solution, but the strength of the Syrian achievements in its political and military aspects, It will impose a systematic pattern that forces Turkey to circumvent positively, and it must accelerate the implementation of the terms of the Sochi Agreement, with a complete closure of the borders, and cut off the supply lines of terrorist factions, and therefore the Syrian leadership is building the formula for the liberation of northern Syria based on the theory of wisdom For political and military experience.
In the end, the Syrian army will be the godfather of any regional and international equations related to the Idlib and East Euphrates files, so any Western or Turkish ambition in Syria will collide with the Syrian-Russian strong coalition equation, and will not be the result of any summit or agreement determining the Syrian state’s options if they are not identical with the Damascus vision .